The new generation of cars heads to Suzuka for the 40th Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix this weekend. The third race of the season is set to be the last for a month until Miami following the cancellations of the Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.
The Mercedes-AMG PETRONAS F1 Team again heads into the race as the favourites for the win after a commanding start to the season with a 1-2 in every Grand Prix so far and both pole positions in the opening races. The Chinese Grand Prix last time out saw Kimi Antonelli take his maiden victory ahead of his teammate. The German manufacturer’s closest rival, Scuderia Ferrari HP, finished 20 seconds back from the closest Mercedes, delivering a blow to the rest of the field with their dominance.
Max Verstappen has won the last four Grand Prix since Suzuka’s return to the calendar, but with Oracle Red Bull Racing’s current form, it is unlikely he will be able replicate previous results. Is this the year we see a new winner or can Ferrari answer to Mercedes and help Hamilton return to the top step?
Can Antonelli Make a Bid for the Title?
Heading into the season all eyes were on George Russell as the championship favourite. With a much more inexperienced teammate and a promising opening race, it seemed it would be Russell’s year. His maiden Formula 1 title, however, could come under threat. Antonelli had solid form in China, becoming the youngest ever pole sitter and storming to victory on Sunday.
The Italian came out of the weekend hopeful for the remainder of the season despite still being in second. There are four points between him and his teammate, with Russell on 51. Leclerc is 13 points away from second and failing to make gains on the two ahead, making it seem a two-horse race to the title.
The End of Verstappen’s Suzuka Dominance
Since his promotion to Red Bull, Suzuka has been deemed by many as Verstappen’s ‘playground’. The Dutch driver has won all four of the races since its return to the calendar in 2022, with a close though battle in his most recent win against the McLaren Mastercard Formula 1 Team.
Alongside multiple F1 champions, including Michael Schumacher and Lewis Hamilton, the Red Bull driver has won at the same circuit consecutively four times, the second highest in history with highest being a staggering five.
With Red Bull’s struggles so far this season, it seems this weekend his run of victory at Suzuka will come to an end. The Austrian manufacturer has had a tough start to the beginning of the new regulations with part of it being due to this being their first ever production of the engine. Both drivers have suffered an engine-related DNF over the past two races. Isack Hadjar in Australia and Verstappen in China.
Red Bull’s best Grand Prix result this season has been a sixth-place, a far cry from their first-place streak a few seasons ago. Despite speculation surrounding Red Bull bringing an upgrade to the Japanese Grand Prix, it is highly unlikely this will pose any threat to Mercedes. The Silver Arrows look to be the most capable of winning this weekend.
Changes in the Midfield
Audi Revolut F1 Team heads into this weekend with a new team principal following the departure of Jonathan Wheatley. Mattias Binotto will return to team principal duties for the first time since his departure from Ferrari back in 2022. Binotto was already serving as the head of the project but will now work in both roles. The Italian will hope to have a more successful campaign with the Switzerland based Team.
Aston Martin Aramco will be the first team to complete a Rookie Free Practice session this weekend. All teams must allow a rookie driver in their cars across four practice sessions in the season. Reserve driver Jak Crawford will take Fernando Alonso’s AMR26 in practice one, an interesting session to watch given the British Teams current issues with vibrations.
Racing at a ‘Drivers Track’
Suzuka’s circuit is highly regarded as a drivers’ track by many due to its challenging layout. The race was first held in 1987 and is 5.807km long. The unique figure-eight-style track features elevation change and a range of high-speed corners that makes it a driver favourite amongst several of the current grid.
The continuous change in direction and high-speed corners, such as the esses, means drivers must be careful on the tyres. Despite graining on the tyres in previous dry years, it’s been optimal to complete the race on a one-stopper.
The new asphalt has now been implemented across the last two sectors, making it tougher on the tyres. Pirelli are bringing the hardest compounds of the range, with the C1 as the hard making its debut this season. The C2 will act as the medium and the C3 as the soft.
Weather can always pose a threat to the Japanese Grand Prix. Despite being moved forward in 2024 out of the typhoon season, the weather still remains unpredictable due to its coastal location. Any threat of rain in the Grand Prix could create a serious threat to strategy calls. Currently it looks to be without rain all weekend.
With Mercedes’ current form in comparison to Red Bull’s, Verstappen’s Suzuka form will most likely not be the same as previous years, another blow to the Dutchman’s season. The four-time world champion will hope Suzuka’s temperamental weather will give him a fighting chance to come out on top.